Arena League Playoffs – National Conference Finals
Kickoff: Saturday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -11

The Rush and Rattlers meet Saturday at US Airways Center to determine the National Conference representative in Arena Bowl XXIV. The last time these two teams met was on May 14, when visiting Chicago’s Chris Gould kicked a 33-yard field goal to win it with one second on the clock. Since that game, Arizona has gone on to win 10 straight contests and appear to be the favorite to win the league championship.

Chicago has been great all year against winning teams (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) and also 4-1 (SU and ATS) in its past five road games. The Rush have beaten the Rattlers five straight times (5-0 SU & ATS) with the Rattlers last win coming in April 2006. Arizona has been terrific at home (9-1 SU), but just 6-4 ATS. Arizona also hasn’t revenged losses very well, going only 2-2 ATS against teams that have previously beaten them. Historically in playoff games, the Rattlers have not been good either, going 14-15 ATS since 1996. Arizona has looked dominant all year and will likely pull out a close victory, but CHICAGO will cover getting the 11 points.

Three more FoxSheets trends supporting the Rush to cover include:

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - poor offensive team (250 to 270 YPG) against an average defense (270 to 290 YPG) after 8+ games. (32-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home favorites of 10.5 or more points (ARIZONA) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 13 or more points/game. (27-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +17.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - in conference games, off a close wins of 10 points or less over a division rival. (32-11 since 1996.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Chicago had a nice comeback win in the conference semifinals, beating Dallas 54-51 by outscoring the Vigilantes 20-7 in the fourth. A big part to the Rush’s success has been their relentless defense. They led the AFL in turnovers (56) and interceptions (42), and were fourth in sacks with 34. Vic Hall was a rookie phenomenon, breaking the rookie INT record with 15. Offensively, the Rush were led by receiver Reggie Gray, who broke franchise records with 130 receptions and 1,969 yards and tied Bobby Sippio’s 2007 record with 53 touchdowns.

With 16 wins during the regular season, the Arizona Rattlers now hold the record for the most wins in an AFL season. This is mostly in part to Arizona “rattling” off 10 straight victories. A big reason for Arizona’s success has been its turnover margin. The Rattler’s are +34 on takeaways, which is 14 more than any other team. Arizona is led by quarterback Nick Davila, who is the favorite to win league MVP honors. He tied the AFL record with 117 touchdown passes and threw only 10 interceptions.