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Halladay leads Phillies into L.A. Monday
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/8/2011  at  1:10:00 PM
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (74-40, +18.8 Units)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (52-61, -13.6 Units)

First pitch: Monday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -160, Los Angeles +150, Total: 6

The Phillies finally lost 3-1 to the Giants on Sunday after winning nine straight games with six of them being on the road. Roy Halladay will try to get Philly back in the win column Monday night when his team opens a three-game set at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles will also feature one of its better hurlers when Hiroki Kuroda and his 2.96 ERA take the mound.

The Phillies, as most expected, have the best record in the majors at 74-40, but their 33-22 road mark is also tops in the National League. Philly has been phenomenal bouncing back after a loss (30-9, +18.8 Units) and is 38-18 against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia loves good pitching matchups where it is 34-16 in games with a total of 7 or less. The Dodgers haven’t defended their home turf too well, going 28-31 (-9.6 Units) at home, and also haven’t had much success against winning teams (18-24). Despite quality pitching by Kuroda, the Dodgers are 1-4 in his last 5 starts, with a paltry nine total runs in these five games. An increase in run support is not expected against Halladay. The pick is for PHILADELPHIA to keep its road success going and win a pitching duel Monday night.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also backs the Phillies.

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (L.A. DODGERS) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. (80-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.2%, +41.1 units. Rating = 3*).

And this rare five-star FoxSheets trend urges bettors to play the UNDER on Monday night.

CHARLIE MANUEL is 18-1 UNDER (94.7%, +17.0 Units) on the road when the total is 6 to 6.5 as the manager of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 5*).

Halladay is 14-4 with a 2.55 ERA, and Philadelphia has won 13 of his past 14 starts and 19 of his 23 starts on the year. He has a 2.03 ERA in four career starts versus the Dodgers, but L.A. knocked out 10 hits in seven innings against him last year. The Phils could use some offense out of Ryan Howard who fell into a minor slump in San Francisco, going 1-for-12 with eight strikeouts in the series. Howard isn’t too much better at Dodger Stadium where he only has a .213 lifetime average, but does have nine homers in 80 at-bats.

Kuroda has been plagued with run support, going only 7-13 despite an impressive 2.96 ERA. Despite L.A. scoring just once for him, Kuroda managed to pull out a 1-0 win Tuesday over the Padres. He threw seven scoreless innings, allowing only four hits, to give him four straight quality starts. Kuroda has been outstanding against the Phillies in his career, going 2-1 with a 0.84 ERA and .107 opponents’ BA (11-for-103) in five regular-season starts. He was shelled for six runs in just 1.1 innings in a playoff start in Philly in 2009. But in Kuroda’s last outing against Halladay in 2010, he allowed only one hit with seven strikeouts in 7.2 innings to defeat the ace 3-0.


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