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Angels-Yankees open 3-game set in the Bronx
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/9/2011  at  4:18:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES ANGELS (63-52, +5.7 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (69-44, +10.7 Units)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -115, Los Angeles +105, Total: 8.5

The Angels look to wake up their bats when they start a three-game series in Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. L.A. scored just four runs in a three-game series versus Seattle, but won two of those contests. The Yankees entered Boston last weekend scorching hot, with their series-opening win giving them eight straight victories. New York then lost the final two games of the series, marking its first series defeat since July 4-6 to Cleveland.

Los Angeles has a golden opportunity to take Tuesday’s opener with a big advantage on the mound in Dan Haren versus A.J. Burnett. The Angels have won seven out of Haren’s past nine starts and are 28-20 (.583) against teams with winning records. Los Angeles has also been a strong bet on the road (31-27, +4.6 Units) and has won four of its past five series openers. The Yanks have been great at home (37-22, +2.4 Units), but are a losing wager against right-handed starters (44-35, -3.5 Units) and a mediocre 38-36 in night games. Burnett is 0-8 with a 7.28 ERA in 12 August starts with New York, and that trend will likely continue as LOS ANGELES will take game one with a terrific pitching performance by Haren.

A trio of three-star FoxSheets trends also supports picking the Angels.

Play On - Any team (L.A. ANGELS) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (86-40 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +42.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (N.Y. YANKEES) - off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival, starting a well-rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. (70-43 since 1997.) (61.9%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Any team (N.Y. YANKEES) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 10 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. (69-43 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.6%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Dan Haren (12-6, 2.81 ERA) has never pitched at the new Yankee Stadium, but has never been intimidated in the Bronx, winning all three starts at the old Yankee Stadium, posting a 3.15 ERA with 16 K and two walks in 20 innings. Haren has been electric of late, going 6-1 with a 2.58 ERA, 48 K and 8 BB in his past nine starts. Haren has allowed just one run in three straight outings (1.09 ERA, 0.69 WHIP). The Angels have scored the second-fewest runs in the AL (441) but find themselves 1½ games back in the AL West, thanks in part to some great pitching.

The Yankees on the other hand, have scored the second-most runs in the majors with 603, but are also 1½ games back in their division. New York will have to shake off a tough loss Sunday night to the rival Red Sox, when Mariano Rivera blew his fifth save of the year and Boston later won in the 10th inning.

A.J Burnett (8-9, 4.54 ERA) has been horrible of late, going 2-6 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his past 11 starts. He has also struggled recently against the Angels, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his past four starts against them.


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