First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -180, Cleveland +170, Total: 7.5

Cleveland is looking for the sweep Thursday night against Detroit in a very pivotal series. The Indians came into this series down four games, but now have the ability to decrease the margin to one. Struggling Detroit sends its Cy Young candidate, Justin Verlander, to the mound on Thursday, hoping to snap a 13-game losing skid at Progressive Field.

Verlander has been lights out all year, going 16-5 with a 2.30 ERA. Verlander threw a no-hitter earlier in the year and has nearly thrown a few more, allowing two hits or fewer in three starts other than the no-hitter. Cleveland will send Fausto Carmona (5-11, 5.19 ERA) to the mound. Carmona has pitched well since coming back from the disabled list, posting a 2.81 ERA in those four starts. Cleveland has played well at home (31-24), including 5-0 versus Detroit, but has not won three straight games against AL opponents since May 13-17. Good teams with aces on the mound usually fare well against the sweep, and since 2009, the Tigers are 8-2 against Cleveland when Verlander takes the ball. The pick here is DETROIT.

The FoxSheets provide another trend that sides with Verlander and the Tigers.

VERLANDER is 22-3 (88.0%, +16.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was VERLANDER 5.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*).

Detroit has had some serious problems at Progressive Field, losing 13 straight games in Cleveland. Despite Verlander’s 2.54 ERA and .187 opponents’ BA in the past 10 outings versus the Indians, he has struggled in Cleveland, going 4-8 with a 6.31 ERA in 13 career starts. Verlander did record the last win for the Tigers at Progressive Field on May 8, 2010 and will try to break the losing skid on Thursday night. In Verlander’s last outing against the Indians, he didn’t give up a hit until the eighth inning and ended with a two-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts in a 4-0 win.

Carmona has pitched well at home against the Tigers in his brief career, going 4-1 with 3.46 ERA in eight starts. The Indians may have changed the momentum in the AL Central race with their triumphant 14-inning win in the series opener and then followed that up with a 10-3 whooping in Ubaldo Jimenez’s home debut as an Indian. Cleveland could use a performance out of second baseman Jason Kipnis, similar to the one Wednesday when he went 5-for-5 with a homer, three RBI and four runs scored.