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Ogando tries to silence Boston's loud bats
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/25/2011  at  4:35:00 AM
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BOSTON RED SOX (79-50, +6.4 Units)

at TEXAS RANGERS (74-57, +1.6 Units)

First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -160, Boston +150, Total: 10

The Boston Red Sox regained sole possession of first place in the AL East with their victory Wednesday night and look to make it three straight wins in Texas on Thursday. After getting shut out in the series opener Monday, Boston has scored 24 runs on 30 hits in winning the past two. This has shrunk the Rangers lead in the AL West to only 2˝ games over the surging Angels who have won six straight games.

Going for the Red Sox is left-hander Andrew Miller, who is coming off a decent outing Friday, allowing one run and three hits in 5.1 innings in a 7-1 victory. Despite a 2-0 record in August, Rangers starter Alexi Ogando has had a rough month, posting a 5.64 ERA and .333 opponents’ BA in four starts. Boston has been terrific against teams with a winning record this year, going 38-16 (+18.5 Units). Texas has not bounced back well after bad pitching performances, going 3-10 (-9.9 Units) after allowing 9+ runs in the previous game. The pick here is for underdog BOSTON to win Thursday night.

The FoxSheets provide two more trends backing the Red Sox:

BOSTON is 25-10 (71.4%, +13.6 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.4, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 2*).

BOSTON is 51-25 (67.1%, +17.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*).

Miller (5-1, 4.99 ERA) has never started against Texas before. Miller has pitched well in his past three road starts, going 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA. Although Boston is 8-1 when Miller starts this year, he’s really hurt himself with his poor control (30 BB in 48.2 IP). 1B Adrian Gonzalez is heating up for the Sox, hitting .435 (10-for-23) with three homers and seven RBI in his past six games.

Ogando (12-5, 3.30 ERA) will get the ball for Texas on Thursday and make his first career start versus Boston. In four relief appearances spanning 4.1 innings, Ogando has allowed one run and two hits while striking out five. Despite the bad August, Ogando pitched well on Saturday in Chicago, giving up two runs and six hits over seven innings, receiving a no-decision in a 3-2 loss.


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