First pitch: Thursday, 7:07 p.m. EDT
Line: Toronto -140, Boston +153, Total: 9.5

Boston will try to bounce back in the finale of a four-game series on Thursday night, after suffering a disappointing 11-10 loss Wednesday night in Toronto. Wednesday’s defeat was just the third loss for the Sox in 76 chances when leading after seven innings.

Taking the ball for Boston will be left-hander, Andrew Miller (6-2, 5.27 ERA). Miller has never started against the Blue Jays, but needs to pitch better than his last outing on Friday, when he allowed six runs in just 1.1 innings in a 10-0 loss to Texas. Ricky Romero (13-10, 2.97 ERA) will be on the hill Thursday for Toronto. Romero went on a tear from July 21 to Aug. 29, in which he went 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA in eight starts, which were all Jays victories. Boston has dominated the Blue Jays, going 32-18 overall and 16-9 in Toronto over the past three seasons. Andrew Miller has been a different person on the road with a 3.32 ERA compared to at home where his ERA is a whopping 9.33. Toronto has been average at home (35-35) but good as a favorite (35-27). The Blue Jays will give a good fight but don’t expect the Red Sox to lose three of four being in a tight division race. Take BOSTON as a rare underdog.

Some more FoxSheets trends favoring the Red Sox include this pair:

BOSTON is 59-31 (+17.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).

BOSTON is 85-50 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Before his terrible last outing, Miller went 2-0 in his previous two starts, throwing 11.2 innings and allowing only one run on six hits. Miller’s 6-2 record does not correspond with his high 5.27 ERA, but that is one of the luxuries when pitching with an offensive powerhouse like the Red Sox hitters. The final 23 games will decide whether Boston is a Wild Card team or a division winner, and all 23 games are against the AL East.

Romero has had some recent rough outings against the Sox, allowing 11 runs and 17 hits over 8.2 innings in his past two starts against them. Romero has not been much better over his career against Boston, especially in Toronto, where he is 0-3 with a 10.62 ERA in five starts. If Romero wants to turn it around against Boston he will have to pitch carefully to David Ortiz who is 10-for-26 against Romero and has been red-hot, hitting .481 with eight home runs over his past 21 games. The Blue Jays will be most likely be without first baseman Adam Lind who has been troubled by a sore right wrist.