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NFL Season Preview: New York Jets
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 8/4/2013  at  5:00:00 AM
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To get you prepared for the upcoming NFL season, we continue our run of all 32 team previews, rolling out one per day from August 1 to September 1. For complete coverage, download your copy of the 2013 StatFox Edge Football Preview. Up next is the New York Jets, whose odds are set at 12/1 to win the AFC East division.

NEW YORK JETS


2012 Statistics:
SU Record: 6-10
ATS Record: 6-9-1
Over/Under: 6-7-3
Points Scored: 17.6 PPG (28th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 23.4 PPG (20th in NFL)

2013 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.ag)
Odds to Win AFC East: 12/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 50/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVIII: 100/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 6.5

2013 Preview:
Offense:
After a disastrous year in Tony Sparano’s “ground and pound” offense, the Jets have turned to new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, more of a finesse guy and closer to former OC Brian Schottenheimer. They’ll use more zone blocking, and power runner Chris Ivory will probably take the bulk of the carries. Mike Goodson, who has flashed in a part-time role, fits nicely into this scheme. So does back-up Bilal Powell, though he could end up on the outside looking in. Joe McKnight will likely continue to be a utility player.

Mornhinweg is a West Coast guy. His biggest challenge will be finding some kind of rhythm for his quarterback, whether it is Geno Smith or Mark Sanchez. If nothing else, they both have the feet to run this offense. But the Jets lack any sort of true catch-and-run threat. Santonio Holmes is the best in a weak group of receivers. Stephen Hill is strictly a field-stretcher at this point, as is TE Jeff Cumberland. Jeremy Kerley will likely be leaned on more heavily, and Mike Goodson should be involved in the screen game. Mornhinweg has always skewed pass-heavy near the goal line, using a lot of play-action and rollouts. Ivory should take all red zone and goal line reps. But the Jets might be quick to abandon the run down here.

Defense:
The Jets have given up an increased amount of points and yards in each of the past three seasons, and their No. 2-rated pass defense lost CB Darrelle Revis, S Yeremiah Bell and S LaRon Landry. Star CB Antonio Cromartie remains for new defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman, and rookie CB Dee Milliner and SS Dawan Landry will help too. In terms of the front seven, head coach Rex Ryan will help oversee a defense that should be much more aggressive with its blitz packages with monstrous second-year OLB Quinton Coples.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
RB Chris Ivory (Saints)
RB Mike Goodson (Raiders)
WR Ben Obomanu (Seahawks)
TE Kellen Winslow (Patriots)
PK Billy Cundiff (Redskins)
G Willie Colon (Steelers)
G Stephen Peterman (Lions)
DE Leger Douzable (Titans)
NT Antonio Garay (Chargers)
LB Antwan Barnes (Chargers)
S Dawan Landry (Jaguars)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Tim Tebow (Patriots)
RB Shonn Greene (Titans)
WR Chaz Schilens (Lions)
TE Dustin Keller (Dolphins)
OT Jason Smith (Saints)
G Brandon Moore (retired)
G Matt Slauson (Bears)
DT Mike DeVito (Chiefs)
DT Sione Po’uha (released)
LB Bart Scott (released)
CB Darrelle Revis (Buccaneers)
S Yeremiah Bell (Cardinals)
S LaRon Landry (Colts)
S Eric Smith (released)

2013 Schedule (All times ET):
2013 Schedule Strength: 20.69 (15th toughest in NFL)
9/8 TAMPA BAY, 1:00
9/12 at New England, 8:25
9/22 BUFFALO, 4:25
9/29 at Tennessee, 4:05
10/7 at Atlanta, 8:40
10/13 PITTSBURGH, 1:00
10/20 NEW ENGLAND, 1:00
10/27 at Cincinnati, 4:05
11/3 NEW ORLEANS, 1:00
Bye Week 10
11/17 at Buffalo, 1:00
11/24 at Baltimore, 1:00
12/1 MIAMI, 1:00
12/8 OAKLAND, 1:00
12/15 at Carolina, 4:05
12/22 CLEVELAND, 1:00
12/29 at Miami, 1:00

StatFox Take: The Jets strung together four straight non-losing seasons from 2008 to 2011 before dropping to 6-10 last year. This is certainly a team in rebuilding mode, likely to throw rookie QB Geno Smith into the fire this year to replace ineffective QB Mark Sanchez. This offense is void of proven skill players, and their best receiver, WR Santonio Holmes, may not even play this year after undergoing multiple foot surgeries. The defense is also breaking in many new faces, which doesn't bode well against the likes of New England (twice), Atlanta, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. The schedule is average in terms of difficulty, but aside from winnable home games over Buffalo, Oakland and Cleveland, the Jets figure to be the underdog for the rest of their games. Although the +130 payoff for seven wins or more is tempting, it certainly seems wiser to pay the price for Under this season.
Prediction: UNDER 6.5 wins (-160)

All NFL Previews

AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - Monday, August 5
Cincinnati Bengals - Tuesday, August 6
Cleveland Browns - Wednesday, August 7
Pittsburgh Steelers - Thursday, August 8

AFC South
Houston Texans - Friday, August 9
Indianapolis Colts - Saturday, August 10
Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, August 11
Tennessee Titans - Monday, August 12

AFC West
Denver Broncos - Tuesday, August 13
Kansas City Chiefs - Wednesday, August 14
Oakland Raiders - Thursday, August 15
San Diego Chargers - Friday, August 16

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Saturday, August 17
New York Giants - Sunday, August 18
Philadelphia Eagles - Monday, August 19
Washington Redskins - Tuesday, August 20

NFC North
Chicago Bears - Wednesday, August 21
Detroit Lions - Thursday, August 22
Green Bay Packers - Friday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Saturday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Sunday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Monday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Tuesday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Wednesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Thursday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Friday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Saturday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Sunday, September 1


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